As reported by Al Jazeera, today’s demonstrations in Iran to commemorate the Shia holiday of Ashura resulted in yet another clash between security and opposition forces. Three hundred protesters have been arrested and 4-6 people have been reported dead. Among them is Seyyed Ali Mousavi, nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi.
It looks as if the Iranian opposition movement is not relenting and instead putting increasing pressure on the government, all despite not having a clear leading figure. It remains to be seen how the death of his nephew will affect Mousavi, but it is clear that there is a strong and decentralized network of mobilized activists that the government has not been able to suppress since the summer.
You can be sure that U.S. intelligence is monitoring the situation with great interest. If the opposition movement keeps gaining force, at some point Obama and his people will have to decide whether to abandon their attempts to reach out to Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. As of now, it is too early to make this decision. But with every large rally, it looks like it will eventually have to be made at some point.